Understanding How Incidents Develop
Incidents in the bush rarely begin with a single mistake. They develop gradually as pressure builds across multiple systems at once. A small decision, such as stepping off the track, can begin a chain of events that becomes increasingly difficult to reverse.
A high profile incident in Kosciuszko National Park, as reported by ABC News in 2025, highlights several common patterns seen in bushwalking incidents. These patterns are not unique. They occur repeatedly across different environments, experience levels, and conditions.
This article focuses on those patterns and what they reveal about how incidents develop, so you can recognise them early and manage them before they escalate.
1. Route Deviation and Shortcuts
Pattern observed in incidents:
- Leaving a known track to take a shortcut or explore off-route often removes reliable navigation cues and increases exposure to unknown terrain.
Safety Recommendation:
- Shortcuts introduce uncertainty. Terrain may be steeper, denser, or more complex than expected, increasing both physical and navigational load.
- Stay on marked routes unless you have strong navigation capability and a clear, deliberate reason to leave them.
- If you deviate, maintain constant awareness of your position and your route back to the track.
- If conditions change or uncertainty increases, return immediately to your last known position.
2. Stepping Off Track for Small Reasons
Pattern observed in incidents:
- Many incidents begin with a small, low-risk decision such as leaving the track briefly for a photo or viewpoint. These short deviations can quickly lead to disorientation.
Safety Recommendation:
- Leaving a marked trail can be risky, even for short distances.
- Before stepping off track, assess visibility, terrain complexity, and your ability to return to the exact point you left.
- Use clear reference points and maintain line-of-sight to the trail where possible.
- If the terrain begins to close in or navigation becomes unclear, return immediately.
3. Rapid Loss of Navigation in Dense Terrain
Pattern observed in incidents:
- Once off track, dense bush can quickly remove visibility, limit movement, and make navigation difficult or impossible.
Safety Recommendation:
- Recognise early signs of navigation breakdown, including reduced visibility, difficulty maintaining direction, and loss of reference points.
- Carry essential navigation tools and know how to use them.
- Use digital tools such as Gaia GPS or Avenza Maps as support, not as your only system.
- In complex terrain, the safest decision is often to remain on the established track.
4. Loss of Communication and Navigation Capacity
Pattern observed in incidents:
- When a phone loses power, both navigation and communication systems can fail simultaneously, removing critical support.
Safety Recommendation:
- Carry essential navigation tools, including map and compass, as non-reliant systems.
- A Personal Locator Beacon (PLB) provides a reliable emergency communication option when mobile coverage is unavailable.
- Start with a fully charged phone and carry a power bank, but do not rely on battery-powered devices as your primary system.
- Redundancy across systems reduces the impact of single-point failure.
5. Survival Without Preparation
Pattern observed in incidents:
- When a situation extends beyond the planned duration, lack of food, water, and preparation increases reliance on unpredictable survival strategies.
Safety Recommendation:
- Carry sufficient food, water, and emergency supplies for delays, not just the planned duration.
- Foraging should not be relied upon. Identifying safe plants is complex and carries risk.
- Plan for the possibility that your hike does not go as expected.
- Preparation reduces the need to improvise under pressure.
When lost:
- Staying in one place is often safer than continuing to move.
- Establish shelter, conserve energy, and increase your visibility to search teams.
6. Equipment Separation and Load Failure
Pattern observed in incidents:
- Separation from essential gear significantly reduces survival capacity and increases exposure to environmental risk.
Safety Recommendation:
- Never separate yourself from your essential gear.
- Carry adequate water. A 600mL bottle is insufficient for most hikes beyond a short duration. Plan for at least 2 litres or reliable water sources.
- Understand how to source and treat water safely in the field.
- Ensure your pack includes shelter, insulation, food, lighting, and first aid.
- Your essential gear is your buffer against system failure.
In emergency situations:
- Signal for help using visibility, sound, and reflective materials.
- Use shelter and equipment to increase detectability from the air and ground.
- Remain in one location to improve search efficiency.
Final Thoughts: Incidents Are System Failures, Not Single Mistakes
What stands out in incidents like this is not one decision, but how multiple small pressures combine.
Leaving the track increases navigation load.
Navigation difficulty slows progress.
Slower progress increases exposure.
Loss of power removes support systems.
Each factor on its own may be manageable. Combined, they create a situation that becomes difficult to recover from.
Checklist-based advice often focuses on individual risks. In reality, incidents develop through interaction between systems.
Understanding how these systems influence each other is what allows you to recognise early warning signs and act before the situation escalates.
Before your next hike, consider where pressure is most likely to build, and what your response will be when it does.
Planning a hike? Most incidents develop before you even start. See how →
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Image: Darren Edwards, Trail Hiking Australia.
Coralie Ginn sums it up.
Janice Lindsey hope people find the recommendations useful. Particularly those beyond the regular bushwalking community.
Trail Hiking Australia excellent advice. This high profile case is a great opportunity to reassess safety procedures. It’s an amazing story of survival
Janice Lindsey thanks for your kind words. I completely agree—this incident provides a valuable opportunity for all of us to reflect on our safety practices. I hope it sparks even more conversations about how we can better prepare for the wild places we all love.
I very much doubt he told anyone he was looking for a shortcut
Nicholas Hayes thanks for your comment. The information I’ve referred to comes from the reports shared by ABC News, where it was mentioned that Hadi Nazari told rescuers about trying to take a shortcut. However, as we all know, reports can sometimes vary, and it’s not my intention to speculate on the details. The key takeaway here is the importance of preparation, navigation skills, and avoiding risky shortcuts—whether or not that was the specific cause of the situation. Ultimately, we can all learn from these incidents to stay safe in the outdoors.
Trail Hiking Australia I expect there is more to why he separated from his friends, as it would be very unusual for people not to wait.
Ken Beath it’s certainly not the best idea.
Ken Beath yeah I don’t get that part of the story either. Why did they leave him behind?
Cameron Wheatley there are certainly a lot of thoughts and questions. Hopefully we will all know more in the near future. For now, I think it’s great that it has prompted a lot of positive preparation and safety discussions.
Cameron Wheatley The story is that he went somewhere for a photo, and he was then supposed to catch them up. Something doesn’t seem right. I wondered if they had a disagreement about the route.
Good take-aways that can keep us all alive. It’s the little mistakes made on top of other previous little mistakes which show how complacency can be such a killer.
Julia Patten Absolutely, it’s often the accumulation of small mistakes that lead to bigger problems. Complacency is a dangerous mindset when we’re out in the wilderness. Staying vigilant and making safety a priority is key to avoiding those missteps. Thanks for highlighting that important point.
Julia Patten except that this involved a massive pile of huge and glaring mistakes. Not just little ones. Friends left him behind. He decided to take a shortcut through rough and unknown terrain. He didn’t have enough water. He had no nap. He had no compass. He had no PLB. He had no phone battery. He had no food. It defies logic that in that situation- heaven forbid you found yourself in it – that you would take even half a step off the track 🤦♂️
Excellent takeaways Darren. I really enjoy your focus on these incidents that help us all think that little bit more about what we are doing out there, before we go.
Grant Hollingworth thank you.
An overlooked item is a whistle. Very handy for emergencies. Can comment more but advice is really dependent on your skill level, such as preparation and understanding of what the lau of the land is with everyday: where are you in relation to water, roads, etc.
Hadi also had a fire lighter and was able to light fires. If you’re lost, and there’s a fair chance people are looking for you a smokey fire with green eucalyptus leaves can be seen for 10s of kms.
Al Czvazanki Great points! A whistle is indeed a vital piece of emergency gear, knowing how and when to use it is just as crucial. I’ve covered that on a separate post on my site for anyone interested.
And you’re absolutely right—understanding the lay of the land and being aware of key features like water sources and roads can make all the difference in an emergency.
Also a great tip about using green eucalyptus leaves to create a smokey fire—that’s excellent advice for increasing visibility to rescuers. Thanks for sharing
Here’s the link to my post about signalling for help: https://www.trailhiking.com.au/safety/signalling-for-help-when-lost-or-injured-on-a-hike/
Trail Hiking Australia NP. I was thinking of how one would prepare a comprehensive guide on how to stay safe: what to do when planning before you leave home, what to do when you’re on hike to stay safe, what to do when things go awry, and what to do when lost.
Al Czvazanki totally agree this information is vital. I have a heap of info on my Trail Hiking Australia site about this and recently condensed the key safety messages this into site called Explore Safe. The purpose of this site is to cut through the clutter to the key messages. You can find this here: https://www.exploresafe.au/
Here’s a link to the article I’ve referred to in my blog post: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-23/hadi-nazari-snowy-hydro-tunnels-opera-house-hut-journal/104803644
Too many hikers have an over-reliance on a phone app for navigation. Many have almost no navigation skills and no desire to learn how to navigate.
Scott Melhuish I agree this is a growing concern. I wrote a piece the other day with an open challenge to test your skills by leaving non essential tech at home. https://www.trailhiking.com.au/preparation/bushwalking-without-tech/
TLDR: Hadi broke all the rules on how to be found
Ben Potter it would seem there is more to learn there.
Best summarised “don’t mindlessly wander off alone into extremely rough and completely unfamiliar terrain” full stop .. but also without any form of navigation aid whatsoever, not even a map! Was this guy for real? 🤦♂️
Cameron Wheatley It’s definitely a strong reminder of how important it is to have proper navigation tools, skills, to be prepared, and to stay on track, especially in unfamiliar terrain.
Cameron Wheatley exactly, and no this guy was not for real, that will become clear in the months ahead 👌
Daniel Grey and what hard evidence do you have of that?
Jonathan Miller I’ve no evidence, but I’m puzzled that he remained in good health and not visibly emaciated after 2 weeks allegedly with no food, no shelter and no reliable water.
Rachel Duck I dunno hey. Either this guy is really and I mean REALLY clueless or there’s something weird going on. Why did he leave behind his tent and sleeping bag???
I have previously asked what makes you an ‘experienced’ hiker as he was described in the news and by friends as he seems to have made some basic mistakes. Do you think panic or stress contributed to this ? At some stage you would have to sit down and weigh up all options and make a plan. Surely he would’ve realised the alarm would be raised, but after day 3, 4 or 5 you may have doubts. 🤔
Brett Duke what makes you an experienced hiker is a great question and is one I’ve explored. Panic can certainly make or break you in situations like this and is often the cause of things going pear shaped. The first thing anyone should do is sit down, try to remain calm and think about your options. Often the best steps are to retrace yours to a last know point to try and regain your bearings.
Brett Duke he didn’t have a map. He is not experienced. End of story.
Cameron Wheatley he didn’t have, or do, multiple things so I totally agree.
Darren thanks for a sober, rational article on this. The mainstream media coverage hailed a miracle, but what is now more usefully coming out on the ABC is the sort of advice you are providing. It is our responsibility to make sure we minimise the risk of us needing a rescue, and when we do need one, to make it as easy as possible for rescuers to find us.
It would be interesting to know what Hadi’s thinking processes were but we don’t.
The plethora of conspiratorial constructions being made by bushwalkers on the basis of very little hard information are very disappointing. Well done to you, Darren, for adroitly sidestepping such comments.
Jonathan Miller Thank you for your kind words. I completely agree—it’s so important that we minimise risks and make it as easy as possible for rescuers if help is ever needed. While it’s natural to have questions about decisions made during an incident, my focus is on what we can all learn to better prepare ourselves for the challenges of the outdoors. I really appreciate your perspective and support for fostering constructive discussions about safety.
Jonathan Miller well said. Couldn’t agree more.
Thank you for writing this. It’s the most sensible response I’ve read.
I’m shocked about the debate on other forums with seemingly experienced hikers stating that it’s not normal practice to carry your own map or PLB. It’s mind boggling and frustrating so thank you again for bringing this best practice that many of us use already, to light. 👍
Kelly Van Den Berg thank you. Really appreciated. While I understand a lot of people have questions, as I do too, I’m not in a position to speculate as I wasn’t there or part of the search and rescue. For me, the best thing we can do with this, or any incident is to learn from it, regardless of what opinions we may form from the little info often available. Judgement doesn’t help anyone.
Hello All the advise in this article is awesome. But I am concerned in the way the author singled out the person who got lost. The author is a rescuer he should know protection of casualty including privacy is important. Yes it was splashed all over the media. But I’m getting really concerned that people will not reach out for help as they are afraid of judgement and shame. Perhaps just say the recent search highlights the need for the following trail craft. Be a guide not a judge. The wilderness is for everyone. For those with experience pass it on. With respect
James van Daele Appreciate the feedback. The article I wrote is in direct response to the ABC media story. I made a very clear point of not scrutinising or judging the incident but focussed on the little bit of information that had come to light. The experience I have shared was delivered with respect. Sorry if that was not your takeaway.
Trail Hiking Australia hello not sure we’re I replied to you before I not saying your trail skills are wrong. I just worried by naming someone they and others will feel shame and not want to ask for help in the future when they need it.
Having undertaken rescuers and fire fighting I was trained to not judge or name in public people we helped. Sorry
James van Daele I think it is best we end this discussion. I do believe you are wrong with your accusations of me and have completely missed the point of this article. You have judged me for something I did not do and this conversation really has gone too far. I read just the entire thread that has stemmed from your original comment and it is a completely unnecessary discussion that has taken away from the positive purpose of the article.
Trail Hiking Australia Well said. What a completely unnecessary and negative point of view James has. It is a shame he felt he had to stand on his soap box and ruin the tone of this discussion. Sorry there are people like this in the world Darren. Speak as though they are experts but offer nothing.
James van Daele I think you may have missed the mark there. I am really concerned by the way you have singled out the author (Darren), when this is the only response to this particular incident that has been super helpful by focusing on the learning lessons. I am concerned that if other people, single out those who are doing their best to get the safety messages out there, as you have just done, then people may stop trying to spread these important messages. This is not helpful to anyone. There was not an ounce of judgement or shame in what was written. Maybe you might want to rethink your comment?
Grant Hollingworth Thank you for this comment. I was about to say the same thing. Shoot the messenger of great advice. I don’t get it.
Grant Hollingworth no his advise is A1 I said that.
Grant Hollingworth just need to focus on the skills and not name people who have had a bad experience. Naming people develops a atmosphere of keeping it quiet and then people don’t ask for help when they need it.
James van Daelefair enough. You are of course entitled to your view but I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one and Darren’s consistent and thoughtful approach to education. Yours is the only comment like this in this post so maybe there’s something in that?
Grant Hollingworth it’s cool. I just know if I go to a road accident to night and make public comments in a public forum I’d be getting a call. Guess my generation of rescuers focused on the rescue the skills to not be rescued. We never mentioned names. I have seen that change over the last decade. It scare me people a lot. We want to ensure people focus on getting out there and doing it right. Fear and shame make people do really crazy stuff. Again the author was A1 correct with skills trail skills.
James van DaeleI understand but you are way off the mark with this one. You have clearly laid down judgement where it is not due. I think it’s actually quite disgraceful what you have done here. You have deliberately attempted to undermine all this good messaging. You have added nothing at all of value to this discussion about safety. Well done!
Grant Hollingworth don’t be angry the point was and I have talked with author were it’s best to focus on the skills and not name individuals who have been rescued.
I know you have not spoken with the author (Darren) so not sure why you needed to state that. And who said I’m angry. Just extremely disappointed in your attitude towards this. You have brought your soap box to a discussion where it clearly was not needed. It concerns me that you could not see that, and it concerns me that you cannot see the negativity that comments such as yours bring to an otherwise positive and helpful discussion.
Grant Hollingworth I put another message for Darren I did reply to him but I’m not sure where it went.
I just checked my EPIRB battery time
James van Daele my PLB battery recent expired. Just sent it off for a replacement.
James van Daele Agree the advise by Darren is awesome. But, I think you need a bit of perspective here. Darren made it very clear that he was not being critical or judgmental. Maybe you missed that? I am certain Darren, knows the protocols around discussing search and rescue events and naming people involved. I have been following his posts about safety for some time and know he is extremely respectful of that. This event is ‘very very’ different to a rescue or road incident nobody has ever heard of. This is an international news story that has been covered by every press outlet across the country as well as some overseas for more than three weeks. If you are so concerned about the protection of the guys name, maybe consider writing to these media outlets and tell them not to publish his name? If you have read some of the damning comments on these news stories, it is pretty clear that mentioning his name as a lead in to this article, could not possibly have done further harm. The public have already achieved that. Had Darren not mentioned his name, we would have all known who he was referring to anyway. So really it’s a mute point you make. I agree the wilderness is for everyone and those with experience should pass it on with respect. That is EXACTLY what Darren has done! Sadly, this is not at all what you have done. A disappointing outcome really.
So well written and such sound advise. Thank you
Another wonderful objective and practical article. It’s wonderful reading a non judgmental piece. And other commenters with extra points of view. The trolllers should take a piece of your expertise rather than write trash
Karen Jane Hawkins awww thanks. That means a lot